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It's hard enough for champions to repeat in the NFL.
Now consider the odds against Washington, which carries a 3-6 record into Sunday's game at Philadelphia.
Just like last year.
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Last year turned out to be magical. With rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III leading the way, Washington ripped off a seven-game winning streak to claim the NFC East crown.
Can it happen again?
"It's not comforting, but we do know that we've done it before," linebacker Ryan Kerrigan told USA TODAY Sports. "We know we're capable, but it's a one-game-a-time type of thing."
There's probably a middle-of-the-pack team poised to make a second-half surge this season that few will see coming. Seems like it happens each season.
In the lowly NFC East, the only NFL division without a team with a winning record, it's a certainty that the hottest team down the stretch wins the crown.
If 10 wins won the title last year, it also seems highly probable that it won't take that many this time around -- adding more fuel to Washington's hope.
"That's a little bit encouraging," left tackle Trent Williams told USA TODAY Sports. "But you've got to run your own race. That's why they put blinders on horses, so they don't see anybody else running. That's how we've got to be."
VIDEO: Week 11 whiparound
Players seem realistic. This season that was so full of promise turned into a reality check in the season opener against Philadelphia when two things were quite apparent:
It was going to take Robert Griffin III, coming off reconstructive knee surgery, a while to get his rhythm.
The defense needed to make major strides if if was going to compete against Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense.
In the ensuing weeks, Griffin has continued to progress. He completed 71% of his passes during an overtime win against the Chargers two weeks ago. And he has increasingly become the running threat that he was a rookie, seemingly gaining strength and confidence in his knee.
The read-option scheme works better, which means Albert Morris is better. Morris has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games.
The defense is improved, too. But it remains to be seen whether coordinator Jim Haslett's contention this week that his unit has another seven-game winning streak in it is overly optimistic.
A big clue comes Sunday against the Eagles, featuring NFL rushing leader LeSean McCoy and Nick Foles, the hottest quarterback in the league over the past two weeks.
In Week 1, with Michael Vick at quarterback, Washington was embarrassed as Kelly's system ran roughshod -- with 57 snaps in the first half -- over Haslett's D.
Presumably, Washington will be better prepared for the rematch.
Just like last time, there's a lot of talk about stopping the run and forcing Philadelphia into long-yardage situations on third downs.
Last time, it didn't work.
"The main thing is tackling," Kerrigan said. "The first week against Philly, we missed way too many tackles. I think we kind of righted that."
If not, the hole will be deeper. Too deep to salvage the season.
Other items to ponder as Week 11 rolls on:
Three intriguing storylines
Dwayne Bowe will play against the Broncos despite his arrest earlier this week.(Photo: Kevin Hoffman, USA TODAY Sports)
Chief concerns. A coach nicknamed the Tuna often said that you are what your record says you are. Technically, that's correct. But there's always a gray area. The Chiefs can relate. They might be the most suspect 9-0 team in NFL history. They haven't defeated a single opponent with a winning record. The last time out, they nearly fell at Buffalo. Yet in a classic matchup in Denver on Sunday night -- Kansas City's top-ranked defense faces the most productive offense in the league -- the Chiefs can make a major statement. What a week for Dwayne Bowe to get arrested. So, while wondering whether the Chiefs offense can put up enough points to hang with Peyton Manning and how well the aggressive defense will supply pressure, there's also a question of how the distraction of Bowe's arrest (marijuana possession, speeding) will affect the flow.
Aldon the X factor. In his first game back from rehab last week, 49ers rush linebacker Aldon Smith got the rookie treatment. He was used in a fashion similar to how he was deployed as a first-round pick in 2011. He played 15 snaps against Carolina on passing downs. The 49ers are surely hoping that it got him in game shape for a heavier load Sunday at New Orleans, where they will try to slow the roll of Drew Brees and the prolific Saints offense. The 49ers haven't declared whether Smith will re-assume his starting role, but that seems a given. His replacement, Dan Skuta, was in a walking boot earlier this week and is listed as questionable. Yet it's not just the pass rush that the 49ers need from Smith and their defense. The Saints rushed for a season-high 242 yards against Dallas last Sunday, but managed just 96 rushing yards in two losses to San Francisco over the past two years.
The Leos and prosperity. Look who's in first place? The Lions haven't been in sole possession of the division lead this late in the season since 1999. That prompts a flashback of Barry Sanders darting and dashing through NFL defenses. After completing a sweep of the Bears in a nail-biter in Chicago last week, Detroit is in the driver's seat in the NFC North. And with major injuries wreaking havoc on Green Bay and Chicago, circumstances favor the Lions' chances of winning their first division crown since 1993. But they have to do their part, too, which means winning in places such as Pittsburgh -- where Detroit hasn't won since 1955. Maybe it's time, with Reggie Bush adding explosiveness to an offense featuring Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, while Nick Fairley emerges as a defensive force alongside Ndamukong Suh. Another key is discipline. Unlike recent seasons, Detroit has avoided the mental meltdowns that led to a reputation as an undisciplined team. That could be a sign of maturity. But it's a long season.
PHOTOS: Ranking Week 11's matchups
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Does either team want to win and mess with a potentially high first-round pick next season?
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The Texans haven't tasted victory since Week 2. Playing the Raiders at home presents a golden opportunity.
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Cardinals shouldn't have a problem against the Jaguars? Then again, Jacksonville is riding the high of its first victory.
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Will E.J. Manuel's return help the Bills get a win? Or can Geno Smith keep the Jets on the playoff track?
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How will the Colts respond after the stunning blowout defeat they experienced at home last week? And what about the Titans coming off a loss to the previously winless Jaguars?
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Both the Chargers and Dolphins need a win to remain squarely in the AFC playoff picture.
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We've been wondering how the Seahawks would look with Percy Harvin on the field. We're about to find out.
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Bengals can't afford a third consecutive loss that opens the door even more in the AFC North.
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The Giants remain a contender in the NFC East, and victory at home over the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers will go a long way.
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Lions face another road test in Pittsburgh as they try to solidify themselves as the team to beat in the NFC North.
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Believe it or not, the Redskins are still in the NFC East hunt at 3-6. The Eagles would rather end that with a win at home.
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A rare case in which an inter-conference game has playoff implications given how late in the season these teams are fighting for a spot.
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One of these teams remains a Super Bowl contender. The other is the 49ers, who are trying to prove they still belong in that conversation. A win in New Orleans would do wonders.
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Cam Newton and the Panthers already passed a big test last week in San Francsico. Can they pass another in primetime when Tom Brady and the Patriots come to town?
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The game of the year so far. How much can the Chiefs' vaunted defense contain Peyton Manning and Co.?
USA TODAY SportsFullscreenLike this topic? You may also like these photo galleries:Replay1 of 15AutoplayShow ThumbnailsShow CaptionsLast SlideNext Slide15PhotosWho's hot: Drew Brees. Another week, another chance at a milestone. The Saints sharpshooter -- who has passed for at least two TDs in an NFL-record 21 consecutive games -- is 433 yards from surpassing Warren Moon for fifth on the NFL's career list for passing yards. He was in a groove against the depleted Cowboys last Sunday night, matching the franchise record with 19 consecutive completions while his unit was en route to setting an NFL record with 40 first downs. It will be tougher against a 49ers defense that has given Brees a few headaches, but he will certainly be in a comfortable environment. The Saints haven't lost this season at the Superdome (5-0) where Brees sports an 18-2 TD-to-INT ratio, firing four TDs in three of the games.
Pressure's on: Mike Wallace. No free agent landed more guaranteed money last spring than the Dolphins receiver, who secured $30 million in the move from Pittsburgh. Clearly, the Dolphins haven't gotten their money's worth, Wallace serving as another example why spending huge dollars on a receiver can be so risky. Wallace has yet to emerge as a consistent deep threat. It's not all on him. Ryan Tannehill hasn't been special on his deep throws, and part of that can be traced to spotty protection (NFL-high 37 sacks allowed). But for the money invested, you'd expect game-breaking impact. And that hasn't happened. Wallace has just one TD and his 12.4-yard average catch pales to the 17.2-yard mark he posted during four seasons in Pittsburgh. He's had just two 100-yard games and even worse, he's been held to fewer than 25 yards in four games.
Rookie watch:Star Lotulelei. When new Panthers GM Steve Gettleman invested his first two draft picks last spring on defensive tackles, it sent quite the message about the direction of the franchise. It wanted to make a strong defense even more formidable. Lotulelei, picked 14th overall from Utah, is already a 310-pound rock in the middle of one of the league's best front sevens. And his wingman, Kawaan Short, a second-round pick from Purdue, is pulling his weight, too. The building blocks on the front wall have made Luke Kuechly even better, as they keep blockers off the terrific middle linebacker. The numbers support this, while the Panthers carry a five-game winning streak into Monday night's game against the Patriots. Carolina's second-ranked defense (rated No. 2 against the run, too) has allowed just 12.8 points per game, the second-lowest clip in the league. And when the rookie defensive tackles are on the field together, the Panthers have allowed just 2.4 yards per carry.
Stomach for an upset: Jets at Bills. It's Round 2 in the matchup of the first two rookie quarterbacks drafted this year, with Buffalo's EJ Manuel hoping to avenge a Week 3 loss to Geno Smith at New York. It won't help that injured Buffalo receivers Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods will miss the game, although rookie blazer Marquise Goodwin could be a big-play fill-in. If the Bills have to lean too heavily on a rushing attack powered by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, that could be trouble. Another disadvantage was pointed out by Buffalo coach Doug Marrone: The Jets are the sixth opponent that will face the Bills coming off an extended rest because of a bye or a mini-bye following a Thursday night game. So they've have extra prep time…and presumably will have fresher legs. For all the issues that come with a 2-7 record, add the scheduling anomaly. Two weeks ago, the Bills threatened to hand Kansas City its first loss. Now Buffalo looms as a spoiler for the playoff-contending Jets (5-4). Maybe they'll catch a break with another weird pattern: the Jets "on and off" sequencing. If the Jets fall this weekend, they will become the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through 10 games.
Scott Tolzien makes his first NFL start against the Giants.(Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports)
Next man up: Scott Tolzien. When the Browns were looking to shore up an injury-stung quarterback position a few weeks ago, the plan to sign Tolzien off Green Bay's practice squad was thwarted by the former Wisconsin quarterback. The third-year pro felt he was better off to continue to develop in Mike McCarthy's system in Green Bay. What a stroke of fortune that turned out to be. Tolzien was not only promoted to the active roster, but is now poised to make his first NFL start against the Giants at the Meadowlands on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers, Seneca Wallace, Tolzien. That's three weeks, three starters for the Packers -- so stable at quarterback for two decades with the durable Rodgers following iron man Brett Favre. Now Green Bay's season rides on Tolzien's ability to keep the offense afloat for at least another couple of weeks until A-Rod can return from his fractured collarbone. In his first NFL action last week, a loss against the Eagles, Tolzien threw two picks. And it was apparent that he doesn't have a cannon arm. Yet he showed a few flashes, which for the moment is the hope to which Green Bay clings.
Stat's the fact: The three TDs that Rams receiver-returner Tavon Austin scored in his breakout game last weekend against the Colts covered 236 yards -- second-most in a game in NFL history. When Gale Sayers scored his six TDs in a game as a rookie in 1965, they covered 244 yards. Austin is the first player in NFL history to score on a punt return of at least 95 yards, while also producing two receiving TDs of at least 55 yards. And now the Rams can exhale, after Austin's was limited for much of the season. That's the type of big-play impact that moved the Rams to trade up to draft the former West Virginia star eighth overall. Suddenly, he joined Sayers and Randy Moss as the only rookies in NFL history to score three TDs of at least 50 yards in a game.
Follow NFL columnist Jarrett Bell on Twitter @JarrettBell
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